Weeks before the most anticipated music awards of 2026, predictions about the songs and artists most likely to win are getting hotter by the minute. In light of this, I am now reaching out with our comprehensive report, calculating the probability of winning for nine major categories.
To identify the most likely winners of the 68th Annual Grammy Awards, the team at PlayersTime gathered performance and popularity data from Spotify, YouTube, Billboard, and major award ceremonies to calculate the probability of winning for each of the nominees across the following categories – best song/record, best album, best solo performance, best duo performance, as well as best R&B and best Rap song. The full dataset used for this analysis is available via Google Drive at this link.
Calculations show that the song ‘APT.’ by the iconic duo ROSÉ and Bruno Mars is projected to take home three major awards, including Song of the Year (probability of 20.72%) and Record of the Year (probability of 22.78%), while Sabrina Carpenter has the highest odds to win Best Music Video award (45.93% chance) and Best Pop Solo Performance (28.05%).
Here is a list of the potential winners in those 9 key categories:
- Song of The Year – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars – APT.
- Record of The Year – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars – APT.
- Album of The Year – Bad Bunny – DtMF
- Best New Artist – Olivia Dean
- Best Music Video – Sabrina Carpenter – Manchild
- Best Pop Solo Performance – Sabrina Carpenter – Manchild
- Best Pop Duo/Group Performance – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars – APT.
- Best R&B Song – Summer Walker – Heart Of A Woman
- Best Rap Song – Kendrick Lamar & Lefty Gunplay – tv off
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ ‘APT.’ is poised to win both Song of the Year and Record of the Year with odds of 3.83/1 (20.72% chance) and 3.39/1 (22.78%), respectively, fuelled by 2.24 billion Spotify streams, 126.7 million Instagram followers, and a No. 1 on the Billboard Global 200.
Bad Bunny has the best odds of winning Album of the Year with DtMF (1.95/1 or 33.94%), reflecting strong streaming on Spotify (83.9M) and impressive social media reach (49.7M Instagram followers). Best New Artist is a close race between Olivia Dean (6.22/1) and Alex Warren (6.43/1), both marking breakout years with chart-topping hits and massive streaming numbers.
Beyond the frontrunners, 2025 saw big comebacks and career-defining moments shaping the Grammy race. Justin Bieber is among the top contenders for Album of the Year with SWAG (8.44/1, 10.6%), backed by 118 million Spotify streams and 292 million Instagram followers, making it one of the year’s most talked-about mainstream returns.
Meanwhile, Kendrick Lamar leads the odds in Best Rap Song with ‘tv off’ (2.31/1, 31.92%) and ranks second in Album of The Year with GNX (5.39/1, 15.64%), supported by 73 million Spotify streams, 19 million Instagram followers, and a strong Billboard presence, blending socially conscious lyricism with commercial appeal and reinforcing his status as one of hip-hop’s defining voices.
The 2026 Grammy nominations highlight global reach and genre-blending like never before. ROSÉ’s ‘APT.’ not only leads three major categories but is also the first K‑pop song nominated for both Song and Record of the Year, signalling the genre’s growing influence worldwide. Meanwhile, Bad Bunny’s DtMF earned nods in Album, Song, and Record of the Year, a rare achievement for a Spanish‑language artist, cementing Latin music’s central place in mainstream awards and pop culture heading into 2026.
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